Same same but different. Reform or re-form?

I haven't written anything in a while. It's not that enough hasn't happened but it is all travelling in the direction that everyone thought it would. I am going to recount for myself the things I think are significant since I last posted.

For the UK, and the reason I have jumped back on to post something is the defection of Nadhim Zahawi from the Tories to Reform. Maybe Nigel Farage thought he could sneak this in knowing that Robert Jenrick was defecting the next day or whatever and he was the bigger catch and the bigger story but this for me at any rate is a deal breaker.

There is a long list of Tories defecting to Reform but this one has to be the worst one yet. I can't speak for anyone other than myself but I am not going to be voting for V2 of the Conservative party. This turnip has already spent 14 years in the Government and look at the state of the country. I don't care about employing politicians with experience of navigating the Westminster bubble and the blob, I want to vote for a party that will destroy it. I want ordinary but successful people in parliament who haven't been climbing the greasy pole of politics for their entire career, people with real world experience who want to make the country succeed - not themselves and not this clown. So, I will be cancelling my membership and looking for a new home politically.

Which brings me onto my title. I can see that there is a small window for a democratic solution here that is rapidly closing. I think most people realize that the courts are now supreme over the Parliament and that we are not living in a democracy. Even if Reform were to get into power then I can't see how they won't be crippled by the blob. Go and watch this: Labour and the Blob laying TRAP for future Reform government" | David Starkey Talks to Toby Young

The best comment on that page is this one and it is spot on so I won't bother to write it myself: 'The Blob must be dismantled before any other Reform (or successor) policies are enacted. There are 600 quangos to scrap, 43 Chief Constables to sack, 35 activist judges to jail, 14 metro mayoralties to abolish, and hundreds of laws to repatriate to parliament. At the same time, there's 250,000 snivel serpents to be axed, and new bodies to deal with the Great Remigration among other things.'

But I have lost faith in Reform and I think so have many others. It's not guaranteed they will get elected either and if there is no other party on the right to vote for they just might not bother to vote at all. The left are organising, becoming more extreme and now the Green Party are seeing a resurgence in them Polls. My daughter's class mates, now allowed to vote at 16 are raving about this complete muppet Zack Polanski. Never was there a man more perfect for the German word backpfeifengesicht.

So, we can see here that a coalition of the left (or rather the Green/ red alliance) could very well out vote a coalition of the right at the next election anyway, especially if people are apathetic with the choices on offer and don't turn out to vote.

A vote for the left will be taken as a mandate for increased immigration, severe curtailment of free speech (sold as hate speech), higher taxes, a draconian legal definition of islamophobia, more borrowing, more exodus of young people and the middle classes and less investment from outside.

I think we will be looking at David Betz's low grade civil war scenario at that point because for at least half the population the Government will no longer be legitimate. It has already passed that point for a lot of people - a failed state along the lines of narco-gangsterism and militias.

Which is a nice segue into the gangsterism of the Donald. His annexation of Venezuela is quite something. Sure, he has broken up the World consensus on how responsible countries are supposed to behave but I am not so concerned about that - and the people of Venezuela as far as I can determine are mostly pleased that Nicolas Maduro is gone. Strategically it is a win for the US and it has sent a message to China and Russia and gone some way to securing the Southern border for the US.

But its just that he doesn't look like he has any intention of giving the country back to the people. He's keeping it. And just like a proper gangster he has chopped off the head of the capo and then left it to the second in command to run it under the proviso that if they don't run it the way he wants, they'll face consequences worse than the last guy.

In fact a better analogy is the 'Where's your tool?' scene in the awesome 1970s British film 'Scum'. 'You run B wing but for me!'. He's the daddy now.

So, that's where we are with the US. A gangster bully. Emboldened by his success in a backwater South American banana republic he is now going after Greenland. I am not a Trump detractor, I have never suffered from TDS, I think he is a combination of Harvey Dent and the Joker (put that as a prompt into ChatGPT for fun) but I think this Greenland business is a serious mistake.

Firstly, I don't even know why he wants it;

1. The USA can already build as many bases as they want under their agreement with Denmark.

2. They only have one base and no-one has ever wanted to build more - because the Chinese and the Russians aren't interested in Greenland. At least there doesn't seem to be Russian or Chinese military all over the place as The Don has claimed.

3. It has lots of natural resources but they are not easily accessible - otherwise the Danes would have exploited them already.

4. The Greenlanders are poor and the Danish Government subsidises them heavily.

5. The Greenlanders don't want to become a US colony, they don't even want to stay connected to Denmark by and large

6. He will lose the trust of all his NATO allies which will cost the US influence, a lot of money and make them significantly weaker, more vulnerable and hand their enemies Russia and China a significant win.

I suspect that they won't get Greenland and the Donald will then say he was bluffing all along but it has forced Europe to take the defence of Greenland more seriously and spend some money on troops, ships, bases and radars. But what's the point of that? He won't have won anything here.

You can only play this bluff so many times before even your fanbase just thinks you're a crank.